NDT Advance Access originally published online on February 19, 2004
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Nephrol Dial Transplant (2004) 19: 1231-1236
Nephrol Dial Transplant Vol. 19 No. 5 © ERA-EDTA 2004; all rights reserved
Original Article
The natural history of autogenous radio-cephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulas of haemodialysis patients: a prospective observational study
Division of Nephrology, Hospital of Martina Franca, Italy
Correspondence and offprint requests to: Carlo Basile, MD, Via Battisti 192, 74100 Taranto, Italy. Email: nefromartina{at}topvideo.net
Background. Clinical practice guidelines have supported vascular access surveillance programmes on the premise that the natural history of the vascular access will be altered by radiological or surgical interventions after vascular access dysfunction is detected. The primary objective of this study was to assess the actual risk of thrombosis of autogenous radio-cephalic (RC) wrist arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) without any pre-emptive interventions.
Methods. We enrolled 52 randomly selected adult Caucasian prevalent haemodialysis (HD) patients, all with autogenous RC wrist AVFs, into this prospective, observational study aimed to follow the natural history of their AVFs for 4 years. The protocol prescribed avoiding any surgical or interventional radiological procedures until access failure (AVF thrombosis or a vascular access not assuring a single-pool Kt/V 
1.2). The subjects underwent yearly assessments of vascular access blood flow rate by means of a saline ultrasound dilution method.
Results. All failures of vascular access were due to AVF thrombosis; none were attributed to an inadequacy of the dialysis dose. AVF thrombosis occurred in nine cases; a rate of 0.043 AVF thrombosis per patient-year at risk. A receiver operating characteristic curve, evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of baseline vascular access blood flow rate values in predicting AVF failure, showed an under-the-curve area of 0.82±0.05 SD (P = 0.01). The value of vascular access blood flow rate, identified as a predictor of AVF failure, was <700 ml/min with an 88.9% sensitivity and 68.6% specificity. When subdividing the population of AVFs into two groups according to the baseline vascular access blood flow rates, two out of the nine thromboses occurred among the AVFs that had baseline blood flow rates >700 ml/min (n = 31), whereas seven occurred among the AVFs that had baseline blood flow rates <700 ml/min (n = 21). The 4 year cumulative actuarial survival was 74.36 and 20.80%, respectively (log-rank test, P = 0.04). The 24 AVFs that remained patent at the end of the 4 years maintained a median blood flow rate 900 ml/min at all time points studied. Worth noting is that, five of them (20.8%) remained patent throughout the study with a blood flow rate consistently 
500 ml/min.
Conclusions. This study shows a very low rate of AVF thrombosis per patient-year at risk and a high actuarial survival of autogenous RC wrist AVFs, particularly of those having a blood flow rate >700 ml/min. Thus, a vascular access blood flow rate <700 ml/min appears to be a reliable cut-off point at which to start a closer monitoring of this parameter—which may lead to further investigations and possibly interventions relevant to the function of the AVFs.
Keywords: autogenous radio-cephalic wrist arteriovenous fistula; haemodialysis; ultrasound dilution; vascular access blood flow